SECTION 2: MINI ANALYSIS #1
QUESTION #1 – ANALYZE THE SITUATION IN VENEZUELA
Starting with the provided chronology of events and the leadership of Venezuela, use one or more of the analytic techniques content analysis, link analysis, ABC, decision tree and describe how you did your analysis) – be specific, include details. As an intelligence analyst, you need to provide insight into the situation in Venezuela.
REQUIREMENT: What are the most serious issues/concerns for the citizens of Venezuela?
Please write up:
1) Your results and findings.
2) Describe in proper form your method(s) (Remember your N=).
3) Provide at least 1 drawing, chart/diagram, or picture to demonstrate how you have analyzed this data.
THE SITUATION IN VENEZUELA
Venezuela has been governed for the past 20 years by the socialist PSUV party. From 1999 to his death in 2013, Hugo Chávez was president. He was succeeded by his right-hand man, Nicolás Maduro.
During its two decades in power, the PSUV has gained control of many key institutions including much of the judiciary, the electoral council and the Supreme Court. But under President Maduro, Venezuela’s economy collapsed. Shortages of basic supplies became widespread, prompting 4.5 million people to leave.
National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó labelled Mr. Maduro a “usurper” and declared himself interim president in January 2019.
Chronology:
2004 – Chavez started plowing rising oil revenue into a host of social outreach programs, known a missions, to provide education, medical services and subsidized food to low-income communities. The hugely popular programs helped Chavez win re-election campaigns and improved living standards. The spending was ultimately unsustainable and poverty returned with a vengeance after oil prices crashed in 2014.
2008 – The global financial crisis sent oil prices plunging at a time when Venezuela’s oil industry had never fully recovered from their extended oil strike; for years, the country had been producing below its official production quota.
March 2013 – Hugo Chávez, the country’s longtime president, died of cancer at 58. Under Chávez and his administration, unemployment and poverty halved, and income per capita more than doubled. Nicolas Maduro, who Chávez groomed to replace him, was elected into office less than a month later.
January 23 2014 – Due to high levels of violence, food shortages and a scarcity of basic goods, opposition leaders Leopoldo López and María Corina Machado began a campaign to remove Maduro from office. That February, thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets in protest. Over a three-month period of violent demonstrations, 43 people were killed.
December 2015 – In the legislative elections, the opposition party gained a two-thirds supermajority in the National Assembly. Maduro, fearing for the security of his position, stacked the Supreme Court with justices loyal to him. Reports would later show that food shortages were so severe that Venezuelans lost an average of 19 pounds between 2015 and 2016.
April – July 2017 – The Supreme Court banned the opposition leader from participating in the April elections. The next day, Venezuelans responded with mass demonstrations all over the country. The protests lasted for months, resulting in violent clashes with riot police that left 66 dead.
On July 30 voters elected the members of the Constituent Assembly, who were officially sworn in on August 4 2017.
May 2018 – Presidential elections were held and Maduro was reelected despite claims of fraud from the opposition coalition. By now, over 3 million people had fled Venezuela due to massive shortages of food and medicine.
January 2019 – After Maduro’s inauguration Venezuelans took to the streets calling for him to step down. Juan Guaidó, leading the opposition, claimed the presidency, citing emergency powers granted from the constitution.
April 2019 – Violent protests – An anti-government protesters set a bus on fire during armed clashes between rebel and loyalist soldiers in Caracas, Venezuela.
May 2020 – Failed coup attempt to disrupt Maduro and his administration – the raid was stopped by Venezuelan authorities and eight armed men were killed during Sunday’s alleged coup attempt.
● Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro says two US citizens have been arrested following what he said was an attempt to overthrow him.
● Mr. Maduro said the two men were part of a group of “mercenaries” whose armed incursion into Venezuela by sea had been foiled on Sunday.
● Mr. Maduro has often accused the US of trying to overthrow him.
QUESTION #2 – ORGANIZED CRIME – ANALYZE LA COSA NOSTRA
Starting with the provided data on La Cosa Nostra, use one or more of the analytic techniques content analysis, link analysis, ABC, decision tree and describe how you did your analysis) – be specific, include details. As an intelligence analyst, you need to provide insight into this organized crime group.
REQUIREMENT: What were the relationships and shared activities between the 5 crime families?
Please write up:
1) Your results and findings.
2) Describe in proper form your method(s) (Remember your N=).
3) Provide at least 1 drawing, chart/diagram, or picture to demonstrate how you have analyzed this data.
LA COSA NOSTRA – ORGANIZED CRIME FAMILIES
La Cosa Nostra is a hierarchically structured society of criminals of primarily Italian or Sicilian birth or extraction. The term applies to the traditional criminal organization in Sicily and also to a criminal organization in the United States.
In New York City, five major Italian-American Mafia families dominate organized crime activities:
While the Mafia–also known as La Cosa Nostra–may no longer possess the robust national presence and
influence it once had, it remains a significant threat in the extended New York metropolitan area, New
England, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit.
The Families:
1. Bonanno crime family
2. Columbo crime family
3. Gambino crime family
4. Genovese crime family
5. Lucchese crime family
History and Background:
Paul Castellano, boss of the Gambino crime family (1976–85). The Gambino Family, which went through five bosses between 1910 and 1957, is named after Carlo Gambino who was the boss of the family at in 1963, when the structure of organized crime first gained public attention. The family originated in the early 1900s under the leadership of Salvatore D’Aquila. Salvatore D’Aquila was murdered in 1928 and control of the Family went to Frank Scalise. Scalise only stayed in power for three years, but the next crime boss, Vincent Mangano ruled for two decades and helped to better establish the family as one of the biggest criminal organizations in the world. By 1951, Albert Anastasia had taken control, and he was best known for overseeing an organization called Murder Incorporated, which performed hundreds of Mob-related assassinations. In 1985, Castellano was murdered following an order by one of his top people, John Gotti. Gotti took over control of the Gambino Crime Family with his second-in-command, Salvatore “Sammy the Bull” Gravano. For years, Gotti managed to avoid criminal charges and successfully evaded a guilty verdict in three separate trials. In the early 1990’s Gotti’s underboss, Gravano, was arrested and gave authorities details about Gotti’s criminal enterprise. Gotti was sentenced to life in prison, and his son John Gotti Jr. became heir to the family crime business.
The Gambino family’s operations extend from New York and the eastern seaboard to California. Its illicit activities include labor and construction racketeering, gambling, loansharking, extortion, money laundering, prostitution, fraud, hijacking, and fencing.
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The Bonanno crime family originated from Sicily and was started under the leadership of Sebastiano DiGaetano in the early 1900’s. Later in the 1910’s, Cola Schiro was the leader. In the violent decades of the 1920’s Salvatore Maranzano was the head of the crime family. Ultimately Joseph Bonnano took over in 1931 and ran the crime group through the late 1960’s.
In 1964, Joseph “Joe Bananas” Bonanno, the head of the Bonanno crime family and Joseph Colombo conspired to kill Carlo Gambino. However, the man entrusted with the job, Joseph Colombo, instead revealed the plot to Gambino. Gambino then became the most powerful leader of the “Five Families” and ran criminal activities including prostitution, illegal gun sales, extortion, racketeering, money laundering and theft.
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The current Genovese “family” was founded by Charles “Lucky” Luciano, and was renamed after boss Vito Genovese. The Genovese family is the oldest and the largest of the “Five Families”. Finding new ways to make money in the 21st century, the family took advantage of lax due diligence by banks during the housing bubble with a wave of mortgage frauds. Prosecutors say loan shark victims obtained home equity loans to pay off debts to their mob bankers. The family found ways to use new technology to improve on illegal gambling, with customers placing bets through offshore sites via the Internet.
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The Lucchese family originated in the 1920s and was known as the Gagliano family at their start. The first boss was Gaetano Lucchese who was in charge between 1951-1967. The family prospered under his leadership, particularly in narcotics trafficking, labor racketeering, and major illegal gambling. Tommy Gagliano replaced Lucchese after he was murdered. They were known as the most peaceful family and remained low key with their operations. They mostly operated through the Bronx, Manhattan, and New Jersey.
